Scientists are still trying to understand why Neanderthals went extinct homo sapiens Established a permanent presence in Europe. The answer is not simple. There are likely many overlapping factors involved, but a new study using techniques inspired by digital ecology is painting a clearer picture.
The research was led by Ariane Burke, professor of anthropology at the Université de Montréal and head of the Hominin Dispersals Research Group in Quebec. Based on the work of his doctoral students, Benjamin Albouy and Simon Paquin, Burke adapted models commonly used to study the distribution of plants and animals and applied them to ancient human populations. This approach combines archaeological evidence with ethnographic data to better understand how early humans lived and moved.
The team focused on Europe during the last glacial cycle between 60,000 and 35,000 years ago. This period was marked by dramatic climate change, shifting between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) phases. That was also the time when homo sapiens First appeared in the archaeological record in Europe and when Neanderthals disappeared.
Their findings show that commonly cited explanations such as climate stress or direct competition alone cannot fully explain the Neanderthal extinction. Instead, the outcome appears to be shaped by a combination of climate, geography, population dynamics, and interactions between species, with conditions varying in different regions.
Modeling of ancient human habitations
In ecology, scientists use species distribution models to predict where a species might survive based on known locations. Burke and his team applied this concept to ancient humans. Instead of modern observations, they used archaeological sites as “presence points” for both Neanderthals and homo sapiens.
The researchers took several modeling steps. First, they created four habitat suitability models for each species using tools from conservation biology and geology. These models combined the archaeological record with environmental data, including measures of geography and climate variability.
Next, Burke compared the results and developed additional models to identify “key” regions. These were areas large and productive enough to maintain stable populations and, importantly, were connected to other such areas.
“Obviously, we don’t have accurate demographic data for populations that lived before 35,000 years ago, so we used ethnographic data from better-documented ancient hunter-gatherer groups to set parameters for the geomatics tool and generate these models,” Burke explained. “For example, these data suggest that the typical annual territory of a local group of 25 to 50 individuals, moving seasonally and maintaining territorial connections with other groups, would be approximately 2,500 km2“
Social networks and survival advantage
At this stage of the analysis, clear differences between Neanderthals and homo sapiens Began to appear.
suitable area for homo sapiens are more interconnected than those used by Neanderthals. According to Burke, this connectivity was vital. When populations are connected, they form networks that allow people to move between groups when faced with environmental, ecological or demographic challenges.
“These networks act as a safety net,” Burke explained. “They allow the exchange of information on resources and animal migration, the creation of partnerships, and temporary access to other areas in the event of a crisis.”
Burke emphasized that Neanderthals were not completely isolated. Archaeological evidence, such as the movement of materials across different regions, suggests that they also maintained relations. However, models suggest that these links were weaker and less reliable, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.
Climate variability and regional differences
The study also found that climate variability, meaning how quickly and unpredictably conditions changed, had a greater impact on populations than average temperature or rainfall.
“Climate variability appears to have played a major role. So it turns out that humans have been sensitive to environmental variability throughout our history,” Burke said.
Nevertheless, climate in itself cannot explain the extinction of the Neanderthals. The fossil and archaeological record shows that Neanderthals survived during earlier ice ages, indicating that they were able to adapt to harsh conditions.
According to the study, their disappearance was probably caused by a combination of climate instability, population pressure and social structure. The exact mix of factors may vary depending on the region.
For example, Neanderthals in Europe appear to have split into two main groups, one in the west and one in the east. In Eastern Europe, worsening conditions may lead to isolation due to weak ties between groups. In contrast, populations on the western edge of their range, in the Iberian Peninsula, may persist longer due to better-connected core areas.
The situation could have been even more complicated.
“In the western regions, the arrival of homo sapiens “Especially for Neanderthal populations, which were already demographically vulnerable, tensions may have increased further. Because both species were able to produce offspring together, their interactions were likely complex, involving competition, occasional interbreeding, and other subtle population dynamics,” Burke said.
A lesson about human connection
Burke believes that these findings shed light on something fundamental about human existence both in the past and today.
“Human migration has always existed, facilitated by mobility and social networks,” he said. “Even today, despite the complexities of borders, population density, and social inequalities, humans continue to migrate for the same fundamental reasons: to find more favorable areas, to reunite with loved ones, and to join mutual aid networks.”
Research shows that survival has never depended solely on intelligence or technology. As it was 40,000 years ago, it still depends on the ability to form and maintain relationships with others.